edublogs

Our brand-new Deepseek-based AI says "Chiefs vs Eagles? ... How Predictable"

Super Bowl predictions from our new Deepseek-based AI trained to be better at forecasting

Share this post

No one can predict the future but at Lightning Rod Labs we are training AI to provide it its finest shot. With approximately date news and a little but feisty 14 Billion parameter design, our AI is boldly forecasting the unforeseeable. Join us as we attempt to respond to mankind's hardest questions.

Super Bowl Sunday is nearly upon us and, simply as two years ago, we have the Chiefs against the Eagles. The spread presently sits at Chiefs -1.5 with an over-under of 48.5. While the statistics are well studied, there remain lots of pressing concerns that are less simple to pin down. Our company, Lightning Rod Labs, has been mining questions from places like polymarket.com and training a big language model to be much better at anticipating the future (and have actually seen some interesting improvements - term paper inbound). Today we turned its cold, determining eye at the Super Bowl to see if it can offer us some insight into the finer points of what we can anticipate this Sunday.

For more updates from the AI world sign up for my newsletter!

Background

Our AI is a 14 billion parameter design which is in fact on the smaller sized side. (Some estimates recommend ChatGPT has 1.8 TRILLION parameters and trained using 8000 H100 GPUs. We used 8.) Additionally, its understanding cutoff is from numerous months ago so we have actually constructed an "agentic pipeline" to do news retrieval, summarization, and ranking. With each question we supply the news and watch as the AI reasons its method through unidentified territory to make its best forecast possible.

And Now ... The Important Questions

We positioned the following concerns to our AI and determined its response. While we have seen forecast enhancements from our training, use these estimates for prop wagering at your own hazard.

Will Travis Kelce propose to Taylor Swift after the Super Bowl?

AI Final Prediction: 5% opportunity

Therefore it seems this Sunday will not be a romantic one. Our AI believes Taylor and Travis' relationship is rock strong, but a little too private for a post-Super Bowl proposition. Plus got ta consider if the Chiefs lose. That would be an awkward proposal ...

First, I'll look at the bottom lines from the short articles. Travis has actually remained in a relationship with Taylor considering that 2023. He's a huge football star, and she's been encouraging of his career, attending his video games. They appear to have a strong, public relationship, and Taylor has actually even welcomed her loved ones to the Super Bowl, showing her commitment.

Some fans are delighted, while others, specifically Swifties, are a bit uncertain, particularly given remarks Travis made about Donald Trump attending the Super Bowl. That has triggered some Swifties to question how ideal Travis is for Taylor. However, the couple appears to be keeping their relationship private and not resolving the speculation straight.

I think the bottom lines are the speculation and his evasive answers. While he's plainly in a relationship and the Super Bowl is a crucial event, the odds and his responses recommend it's more of a possibility instead of a certainty. I 'd estimate a low likelihood, maybe around 5%, considering all elements.

Will the Eagles do more than 5 "tush-pushes" throughout the very bowl?

AI Final Prediction: 79% possibility

No Jason Kelce hasn't stopped the Eagles from using their signature "tush-push" relocation, now its simply a different front-tush being pressed. Will an AI comprehend what a "tush-push" is? Does an AI even know what a "tush" is? Will it consider that the Chiefs stopped (debate aside) Josh Allen's comparable efforts? Appears like our AI thinks they'll be utilizing Jalen Hurts 600-pound squat and strong legs and lower body (Does our AI have a crush on Jalen Hurts?) time and again throughout this video game.

Alright, I'm attempting to figure out the probability that the Eagles will do more than 5 "tush-pushes" during the Super Bowl. First, I require to understand just what a "tush-push" is. From the articles, it looks like it's a method where the quarterback, in this case Jalen Hurts, utilizes his legs and lower body strength to press off protectors. It's compared to pushing a heavy box, so it's a physical maneuver that needs strength and method.

Article 3 dives into the physics of the "tush-push." It explains how Hurts utilizes his leg strength, having actually done a 600-pound squat, to carry out the move. The post points out that the Eagles have a 90% success rate with this strategy, which is pretty high. ... I also require to think of the defensive methods of the Chiefs. If the Chiefs know the Eagles' "tush-push" method, they might adjust their defense appropriately, which might either increase or decrease the variety of times the Eagles use it.

Considering that more than five looks like a substantial number but possible provided their self-confidence, I would estimate a likelihood around 60-70% opportunity. This represents their preparation, confidence in the technique, and the possibility that they'll use it several times, particularly if it's reliable early on.

Will Kendrick Lamar diss Donald Trump throughout the halftime show efficiency?

AI Final Prediction: 65% chance

While our AI may not resemble us when it pertains to consciousness, a soul, or any physical manifestation, it certainly has viewpoints on Kendrick Lamar. It was quite uncertain, waffling back and forth, but in the end it believes Kendrick isn't going to back down from a fight.

From the articles, I see that Kendrick Lamar has a history of slamming Trump. He's done this in his tunes, like "The Heart Part 4," and even made a declaration during a previous halftime program when Trump was present in 2018. That appears significant because it shows he's done it before, so maybe he'll do it again. But wait, taking a look at more recent posts, it points out that Lamar is moving far from political declarations and focusing more on personal expression. That might indicate he's less most likely to address Trump this time.

However, he's likewise involved in a fight with Drake, which may offer him reasons to make some public statements, even if they're not political. Another point is the legal issues surrounding his track "Not Like Us." There's a libel suit from Drake, so possibly he bewares about including any questionable tunes in the performance. But since he won the Grammys for that track, he may still wish to perform it, even if it's uncertain.

Considering Trump is attending this Super Bowl, which is a prominent occasion, Lamar may feel obliged to make a declaration. However, the NFL tends to avoid political declarations throughout the halftime program, so there's a threat that such content might be restricted or softened.

On the other hand, Lamar has a track record of making bold carry on big stages. He's the first solo rap act to headline the halftime program, which may provide him more innovative freedom. Plus, his previous habits recommends he's not shy about expressing his viewpoints, even in public efficiencies.

But I likewise remember reading that Lamar revealed tiredness about slamming Trump, comparing it to beating a dead horse. That might suggest he's less motivated to raise Trump this time around, specifically if he's concentrating on his feud with Drake. In summary, weighing all factors-past behavior, present shifts in focus, legal concerns, and the occasion's context-the possibility appears to be moderately high, maybe around 65%.

Will Andy Reid consume a cheeseburger on screen after the incredibly bowl?

AI Final Prediction: 25% opportunity

Lets be honest, Andy Reid loves cheeseburgers. And who doesn't? Will the reality that our AI has never ever tasted the juicy deliciousness of a fresh burger taint its prediction? Appears like theres somewhat of a chance that if the chiefs taste victory, Andy will taste Angus Beef.

From the posts, I see that Terry Bradshaw made a joke about Andy Reid eating a cheeseburger throughout a Super Bowl event. Bradshaw later on said sorry for the joke, saying he didn't mean to trigger offense and that he really found it humorous himself. Reid seemed to take it in stride, which may suggest he's the type to laugh it off rather than getting upset.

Looking at the short articles, it mentions that Andy Reid is a food enthusiast and enjoys cheeseburgers. There's an article specifically about his love for food, which recommends that he's a person who enjoys consuming, especially with his team. So, if there were plans to commemorate after the Super Bowl, it's possible he would engage in a cheeseburger, especially if the scenario is on screen for a celebration.

Will the opening coin toss in the Super Bowl be tails?

AI Final Prediction: 50% possibility

"Tails never ever fails?" You can't deceive the machines !! Betters leading up to the superbowl have actually been forecasting the coin toss and 53% are anticipating heads due to it being heads 3 of the last 4 extremely bowls. Potentially profitable? Maybe. Statistically incongruent? Certainly. Luckily our AI can't be fooled and believes anything can happen when that coin goes in the air.

Okay, so I'm trying to figure out the possibility that the opening coin toss in the Super Bowl will be tails. I understand that a coin toss is supposed to be 50/50, however there's some historic information that might affect this forecast.

First, I review the posts provided. They all discuss the historical data of Super Bowl coin tosses. It seems like tails has come up more frequently than heads traditionally. Specifically, in 58 Super Bowls, tails has actually been the outcome 30 times, which is about 52%, while heads has actually been 28 times, which is about 48%. So, based simply on history, tails has a small edge, however it's not a huge distinction.

However, I bear in mind that the outcome of a coin toss is usually thought about random. The small historical edge for tails might be due to possibility. But when making predictions, sometimes people weigh historic information even if it's not statistically significant. So, I should think about whether this historical bias must affect the probability.

After thinking of it, I choose that while the historic data shows a slight choice for tails, it's not statistically substantial sufficient to move the possibility away from 0.5. So, I'll go with 0.5 as the possibility, acknowledging that the slight historic edge exists but does not bypass the truth that each toss is an independent 50/50 occasion.

Will the referees cheat to help the Chiefs win the Super Bowl?

AI Final Prediction: 1% possibility

We get it, you think the refs like Patrick Mahomes and are gon na help him win. If I wasn't born and raised in Kansas City (I assure we didn't inject pro-Kansas City training information) I would probably believe the exact same. BUT, its authorities now due to the fact that our AI states the chances are only 1% (hmmmm ... 1% is still kind of high when it pertains to scams on a national scale). Looks like the Chiefs will need to win fair and square!

AI Reasoning:

Okay, so I'm attempting to determine the possibility that the referees will cheat to assist the Chiefs win the Super Bowl. Hmm, that's a quite severe accusation. Let me break this down. First, I'm seeing a lot of short articles that speak about conspiracy theories suggesting referees are biased towards the Chiefs. People are indicating some doubtful employ current video games, particularly the championship. That does seem to spark some uncertainty. I can see why fans may get annoyed when their team loses due to what they view as bad officiating.

But then I read that the NFL Referees Association and the Commissioner, Roger Goodell, have both dismissed these claims as "preposterous" and "ludicrous." They say there's no evidence of methodical bias. That's a strong statement from individuals in charge. If they're denying it, it might mean there's no real basis or they would have resolved it in a different way if there was some reality to it.

Looking at the short articles, a number of sources like [1], [5], [6], [7], [8], and [9] all report that the authorities are against these claims, and some even called them insulting. They also discussed that statistical analysis doesn't reveal any pattern of favoritism towards the Chiefs. For pipewiki.org example, Mike Pereira from FOX said data shows the Chiefs have actually been penalized more since 2022. That's intriguing because if they were getting special treatment, you might anticipate less penalties, right?

...

So, putting all of it together, the possibility that referees will cheat to help the Chiefs win the Super Bowl is most likely really low. Maybe not zero since you can't eliminate every possibility, however extremely not likely.

Summary

There you have it everybody, is it even worth viewing the video game still? I guess I'll have to wait and see how the video game ends up before we unleash this upon the stock exchange. Fingers crossed for a great game! And hi, if it ends up our AI was incorrect about whatever, at least it can gain from this.